Strategic Paradigms by Ehsan Ahrari

America’s most potent weapon is not its military, but its democratic culture.  If anyone has any doubts about that reality, he/she should read the most recent essay penned by President Hu Jintao of China.

“China’s President Pushes Back Against Western Culture” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/asia/chinas-president-pushes-back-against-western-culture.html?ref=global-home&pagewanted=print (more…)

The continuing economic crisis has created new pressures and demands for reduced expenditures inside the United States.  The chief question is how to lower defense spending without damaging America’s capacity to project power globally and being able to fight more than one war in different regions of the world.  The fact that no such situation would present itself in the near future is irrelevant; the requirements of contingency planning make it vital that top U.S. civilian and military leaders remain prepared for emergencies.  An added variable is the presidential campaign that is currently being waged inside the United States.  This is also a time when a sitting president becomes a target of challengers to his job for not paying adequate attention to America’s military strength.  These realities also necessitate a declaration of a “new” strategy. (more…)

The U.S. invasion of Iraq was the outcome of the then rising militarism of the administration of George W. Bush.  Some would argue that it might also have been a natural reaction to the fact that American territory was attacked on September 11, 2001.  But the invasion of Iraq itself had a spurious pretext: to deprive Saddam Hussein of his non-existent arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).  The exploitation of the U.S. intelligence community to support the claims by the Bush White House has permanently damaged the credibility of the American intelligence community worldwide.  Other “rationales” for waging a war is always an option. The next major war, or at least military action, involving the United States seems to be Iran, the last “rejectionist state” of the Cold War years.  What might be different about the next war is that the states of the Persian Gulf are likely to be playing a major supportive role, if not militarily, then certainly by providing political and financial support for that war. (more…)

For the students of international affairs, the notion of power realignment is an old one.[1]  When it really happens, the erstwhile great powers, or even the superpowers, are likely to encounter pleasant or unpleasant surprises.  The year 1991 was one such occasion, when the communist superpower imploded, thereby freeing a number of nations of Eastern/Central Europe and Eurasia, triggering a series of rounds of NATO “enlargement,” and, most importantly, creating a “unipolar moment.”  The United States remained the only superpower.  The period between 2008 and 2011 is both unique and somewhat similar to that of 1991.  It is similar in the sense that it is also bringing about the decline of the United States.  It is unique in the sense that, unlike the rather quick implosion of the Soviet Union, America’s decline is a long and drawn out process and potentially reversible. (more…)

The deteriorating U.S.-Pakistan ties do not seem to have a stable new nadir since the assassination of Usama Bin-Laden by the U.S. Special Forces last May.  It seems to be finding new low points each week.  Pakistan’s foremost journalist, Ahmed Rashid, states that the Army of his native land has issued orders to “treat the U.S. as an enemy and attack any planes intruding into its territory…”  The killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers as a result of an “errant” NATO attack has not helped matters.  Pakistan wants an apology from President Barack Obama, which is not expected to be issued, for now.  In the meantime, rumors of a planned coup for the ouster of the highly inept Zardari government are hot inside Pakistan, despite the denials of General Pervez Kayani.   (more…)

I watched former General James (Jim) Jones, Jr. on the Charlie Rose Show.  He was President Barack Obama’s ineffective National Security Advisor; not ineffective because he was not fit for the job, but because he was not one of the Obama groupies. As such, he remained in the outermost circle of the concentric rings established every time a new president enters the White House. Frustrated about his lack of effectiveness, he resigned after serving the administration for two years.

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According to Macmillan Press, my latest book, “The Great Powers versus the Hegemon” will officially be released on December 20, 2011.  See link for more information:

http://us.macmillan.com/thegreatpowersversusthehegemon/EhsanMAhrari

As if Pakistan’s troubles stemming from the homegrown Islamists, blasphemy laws, growing sectarianism, and the continued tensions with the United States over Afghanistan and its infamous dealings with the Haqqani terrorist group were not enough, the outbreak of the “memogate” only adds to its ostensibly interminable tragic saga.  The entire controversy has been given the title “memogate” by the media.  All controversial issues involving public personalities since the Watergate scandal that brought down the presidency of Richard M. Nixon end up being labeled as some sort of “…gate.”  A Pakistani-American businessman, Mansoor Ijaz, claims that he was asked by an undisclosed top Pakistani official to pass along that memo to Admiral Mullen, the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  The memo itself may best be described as a sellout of Pakistan to thenited States.  Ijaz, later on, named Hussain Haqqani, Pakistani ambassador to the U.S., as the author of that memo – a charge that Haqqani vehemently denies.

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The promise of “Pacific presidency” of Barak Obama is producing some impressive results lately in the Asia-pacific in countering the diplomatic challenges and military maneuvers of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).  In the realm of diplomacy, the United States is pushing Obama’s multilateralism to a new height; in the realm of military preparedness the AirSea Battle doctrine is establishing once again the long-standing innovativeness of America’s military in countering its actual and potential adversaries.  The opening of a new American military base in Australia is definitely a new and a permanent achievement of the Obama administration, considering that the chances of America’s closing of that base in the foreseeable future are remote.  Even though the United States insists that China is not an adversary, all indications point that both Washington and Beijing are constantly eyeing each other as such at least in their military modernization plans. (more…)