Will the Levant Experience a New Power Realignment?
September 1, 2008
Posted in: Hot Global Issues from Other Sources
Tags: Golan Heights, Hezbollah, Iran, Iran-Hezbollah nexus, Israel, Lebanon, Levant, Mughniyeh, Syria
Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated on February 12, 2008. He was the alleged mastermind of the massive attacks on the U.S. and French Marines in Lebanon in 1983. His cohorts were allegedly involved in bombing Jewish targets in Argentina and for terrorist attacks in France in the early 1990s, resulting in more than 100 deaths. Borzou Daragahi and Sebastian Rotella of the Los Angeles Times wrote an intriguing piece on August 31, 2008, several months after Mughniyah’s assassination.
The most interesting part of Mughniyah’s assassination question—which will never be answered—is who killed him. He was one of the most sought-after persons by American as well as Israeli intelligence. However, since he successfully defied both of those countries, one possibility is that he was murdered by Syrian intelligence—with whom he was working closely—as a favor to the Americans. The United States has been determined to push for the indictment of Syria’s President Bishara Assad by the U.N. He is suspected to have been involved in the assassination of Lebanon’s former Premier Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon in 2005. As a quid pro quo for Mughniyah’s life, according to this speculation, Assad will be given a respite on the Hariri murder inquiry.
Another possibility is that Israel demanded Mughniyah’s head as a price for continuing the indirect negotiations with the Syrians involving a potential withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
The most interesting aspect of Mughniyah’s assassination is how Syria is being pulled between Israel and Iran. Israel is getting desperate to take military and diplomatic action against Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons ambitions. However, it must ensure a diplomatic isolation between Iran and Syria. That would also weaken the Iran-Hezbollah nexus. If true, we might be witnessing a new power alignment in the Levant whereby Syria—for explicit promises of the return of the Golan Heights from Israel—might create a diplomatic distance with Iran. At the same time, it will be persuaded by Israel to tighten control on Hezbollah. Needless to say, Iran is not going to remain idle in this alleged diplomatic cat-and-mouse game between Israel and Syria.
September 18th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
You’re a dreamer if you think the US actually will pressure Israel to make peace with the Arabs/Palestinians. Even Obama has knuckled under to AIPAC and gratuitiously promised them an “undivided Jerusalem.
September 19th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
The chief shortcoming are the assumptions that energy and climate will remain constant, and that the US is prepared to handle living within set boundaries – both geographical and economic.
None of these assumptions is realistic, for interrelated reasons. Unlike the other powers involved, the US has no experience of living within set boundaries. Its basic problem-solving mode has been expansion and conquest since 1607 in Virginia and 1620 in Massachusetts, and it has never found another solution to social problems, unlike China, India, and Russia, all of whom have hundreds or even thousands of years experience working things out within their own borders.
The closing of the frontier in 1890 was traumatic for the US. The Homestead Strike of 1892, the Pullman Strike of 1894, and related turmoil through the Fuel and Iron Strike of 1914 made it clear that the system was in serious danger of coming apart in revolution.
Escape from that was through imperial expansion into the Philippines and Latin America, as well as further commercial penetration into the rest of the world. Those two tracks have been the safety valves that have worked ever since. Thus the relentless expansion of the US has been an expression of a fundamental weakness of national character, concealed by the availability of new fileds to conquer.
But the picnic’s over now. Climate change and resource depletion slam the door on escape through economic growth. The unwillingness of the rest of the world to be dominated by an increasingly rapacious empire slams the door on geographic expansion. Even the naked seizure of Iraqi petroleum by undisguised force would not solve the problem of limits on growth imposed by the melting arctic tundra and the clouds of methane it will release in response to further economic growth.
Bolshevism was an expansionist messianic ideology, but it was a superficial overlay on an old and conservative Russian character. It wore off noticeably even in the days of Stalin. But American messianism is fundamental from the beginning 400 years ago. Shedding that will not be shucking off a recent foreign innovation, as it did for the Russians. It will entail a forcible intervention of reality against the fundamental American identity, against the only problem-solving mode the United States has ever known. We can expect some interesting times, but who can imagine just how this reality check will play out?
September 20th, 2008 at 5:40 am
The Deal that President Zardari may Strike with USA
A Khokar. Milton Keynes, UK
The other day I was going through the book review of Bob wood’s new book; ‘The War within: A Secret White House History 2006-2007′ and was amazed with the revelations that it contains. Book has the potential to give a big boost to the campaign of conservative Presidential candidate—John McCain, with the purported capture of Osama Bin Laden and his Lieutenants.
Osama Bin Laden may pop up the real wild card in US Presidential campaign or not; our Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari surely may give us a real October Surprise. Keeping in view of his recent manoeuvres on the political scenes of Pakistan that how with in short span of time, the man has really changed the whole scenario of our political life. How efficiently he put even his arch, blood thirsty rivals into his fold and together they moved on to Islamabad to dislodge the mighty President.
President General Pervez Musharraf was removed with a single stroke. Then how cleverly he bulldozed the PML (N) the second largest Coalition party to the ditch of losers and secured the seat of President for himself, without loosing even a single item of Powers of a mighty President. Probably, he is the most power full civilian President in Pakistan’s history. He has proved to be the man of nerves of steel bearing a long term experience of wheeling and dealing in the hierarchy of the western world.
The recent switching and deferment of his announced visit to China and his diversion and visit of UK; where his private meeting with the Prime Minister Gordon Brown in UK was staged to brief and mould him prior to his formal visit to USA, when he will be meeting George W Bush and his team. We may expect many surprises to spring up, stemming out of his wheeling and dealing traits at Washington. He has already successfully dealt with the separatist dissident forces of Baluchistan i.e. Baluchistan Liberation and Baluchistan Conservative Armies and who have reportedly since renounced their separatist claims. He can also deal with the Taliban anarchists of FATA; because he knows; these stooges, loyalty goes where the money goes. The dazzling flash of money and the opulence in sight may make them to submit to any terms.
This may also be a surprise for the Neocons and Pentagon Washington but he may very much be able to manoeuvre the flight of the Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden (if he is alive) out from Afghanistan to the new horizons, to some distant place, like in southern Sahara of Algeria where Algerian wing of Al Qaeda is already very active.
No Al Qaeda; no terrorism on Pak-Afghan border; no anarchy. No drone missiles firing or raids. No bamboo reeds; no playing of flute. All –a hunky-dory. It will be just like taking the wind out of the sails of ‘war against terrorism’, but the big question arises? What about the well sought ‘21st Century American Imperialist plan’ and US hegemony in this areas? How it will be unfolding? What about the recent build up in FATA, where USA was finally just ready to move in Pakistan on the pretext of Pakistan being the epicentre of Terrorism? CIA has spent millions of dollars to raise new US abettors in FATA called Tehrik e Taliban. While in Pakistan sitting at the vantage strategic location; how easily US would have been able to keep a check on the new emerging powers like China and India and also to keep the Russian in their own four walls. USA was nearing the victory line to thrust a monopoly over the Gas and oil resources of Middle East and Central Asia. How about all this?
It is simple; it depend how best Pakistan becomes the ‘Egypt of President Gamal Abdul Nasser’ that at the time of Suez War of 1956 when British’ along with France and Israel were about to topple Egypt and seize the control of umbilical cord, the route of flow of western trades– ‘Suez canal’, which Egypt had nationalized; that the President of USA, Dwight D Eisenhower… butt in. British’ were told to withdraw from Suez Canal because Gamal Abdul Nasser had conceded to US that Egypt will stay loyal to US for life and keep the Suez Canal always open, provided British had removed their yoke. On Gamal Abdul Nasser assurance and US guarantee; the British forces withdrew; that was the day and it is today, the Suez canal passage is a guaranteed wide open route as a high way of ‘trade and oil’ for the west. Egypt is busy eating the canal revenue as well aid moneys for staying loyal to masters. Egyptians need not to even change their authoritarian Presidents installed by US till they die or are killed. Economy hems on the tourism industry basing on the out side world attraction to the relics of old Nile River Civilization and remnant of Pharaoh era but life in the rural area still reels, hanging on to donkey carts trailing the dusty tracks.
Like wise the ‘Manoeuvre Master’ President Asif Ali Zardari may also come up with a real big surprise of October. Pakistan strength lies in its vantage strategic location in the area. This can be offered to US to have their Mega bases built here. Pakistan is in any case believed to be the staunch loyal ally of USA; they both will be seen swinging together more happily. But pity is that USA is known as the most brutal oppressor, who only known for extermination of his opponents but after having achieved due consolidation of mega bases in Iraq and a secure anchorage in Afghanistan; now there are the plans floating around that in order to win the hearts of the subjugated; the ‘War on Terror’ be renamed as; ‘A Long War’ and hence forth US from all the War theatres may not leave till the locals start loving them.
History tells us that Pakistani land; the ‘land of passes and passages’ lying between west and south Asia has seen many brutal invasions from the west in the Past; but it’s all a changed world now. By submitting to USA; Pakistanis may be reviving the submission of Ghandharian king Ambi of Texila that in 327BC, fearing the onslaught and destruction of his lands and his people at the hands of invader; he submitted to Alexander the Great right at the entrance gates of his domain on crossing of Indus river at Attock. There after; many invaders followed; they took Ghandharian for granted; they all came; they plundered, they looted and raped but Ghandharian were never able to see the day of their glory again.
Pakistanis may swing with USA to any length but must remember; “America has no friends or enemies, only interests”; Says Henry Kissinger….
Any how please be ready; Osama’s flight is about to take off?
—————————–
Contact email; aaykhokar@yahoo.co.uk
January 17th, 2010 at 3:25 am
Good content, thanks for sharing it with us