Strategic Paradigms by Ehsan Ahrari

The G-20 meeting today in London is an event of major significance.  Even though the decline of the United States is not yet an irreversible phenomenon, the rise of China has become formalized.  Now, the question is when will the G-8 either become the G-9 by including China, or will it remain the G-8 by excluding Russia, Italy, or Canada.  At least regarding the PRC’s rise, the handwriting is on the wall.

The global economic meltdown has only intensified talk of the U.S. decline as the lone superpower—the chief player in the world’s military and economic affairs and the presiding actor in the unipolar global power arrangement.  There might be more than a fair chance that the United States will at least safeguard most of its prestige and clout in the coming years.  But there is little doubt that China will emerge, perhaps in the next ten to fifteen years, as the rough equivalent of the United States.

China surprised the global soothsayers by escalating its status as the world’s third largest economy.  Germany became number four, while Japan still remains number two. 

Considering the fact that the Japanese economy has long been in a state of slump, China is likely to become the number two economic power within a matter of five or more years.  When that happens, it will, indeed, be one of the earth-shattering events of our time.

During the G-20 meeting, the United States agreed to establish a strategic dialogue with the PRC.  That is a major breakthrough.  The history of strategic dialogues involving the United States and another major power, led to the increase in the regional and global power of that other actor.  That was what happened to India, starting 1998.  Today, the U.S.-India strategic partnership is the reason why India could sign a nuclear deal with the lone superpower as a result of which it is guaranteed access to cutting-edge military and civilian technology.

But China still has to convince the United States that the real purpose of its emergence as a world power is nothing but peaceful.  Considering the enormous economic advantage that China enjoys while the global economy suffers from recession, it might be able to persuade the United States after all.  It already has made significant strides toward that reality.  It has agreed to increase its contributions to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), with the promise of increased clout, of course.  It will not insist, for now, that the U.S. dollar be replaced by another global currency.  The reason for that is more technical than political.  Any arrangement of that magnitude has to be agreed upon my major powers.  Especially now that the world economy is topsy-turvy, the prospect of replacing the dollar by some other currency is not high.  However, China now has ample clout to keep that dialogue alive, or not press for it, if the price of its entry into the echelon of top global powers is right.

There are some other heady issues on which the United States and the PRC must find common ground.  The first one is the purpose of China’s military modernization.  The Pentagon keeps issuing papers, year after year, consistently raising doubts that China’s rise is likely to be peaceful.  Every new edition of that publication keeps updating the number of ballistic missiles that the PRC has been stationing across the Taiwan Strait, and the fact that China remains opaque about the size of its defense expenditures.

The question now is whether the goodwill stemming from its accession into the ranks of the leading nation-states in the G-20 meeting will lower the U.S. rhetoric of concern and criticism related to China’s military modernization.  The answer to that question has to wait for another year or more.  China’s continued enthusiasm in helping the U.S. in the Six-Party Talks is definitely making a case for China’s peaceful intent.  But its refusal to rule out the use of power to bring about reunification with Taiwan is not.

The second critical issue is whether the United States and China will cooperate in their continuing global race for secure energy sources.  Washington has been accusing the PRC of neo-mercantilism on this issue.  China is driven by the ever-escalating need of its factories and populace.  In this race, China has not paid much attention to the politics of dealing with such states as Iran and the Sudan.  In the coming years, it is likely to continue its trade deals with those two countries.  Besides, considering how directly related the security of energy sources are to a country’s military prowess, China is not likely to let up on its activities merely to soften America’s criticism of its quest for energy.

The Sino-American global agenda has issues of conflict as well as cooperation.  Under the administration of President Barack Obama, the chances of bilateral cooperation between Washington and Beijing are bright.  The United States seems to be ready to accept China’s accession to superpowerdom.  Now, China must demonstrate to the U.S. and other countries that the underlying intent of its accession to global power is nothing but peaceful.