All eyes are fixed these days on Afghanistan to see how many troops are being deployed at what places in that country and how many more NATO troops will be deployed and where. In Washington, the U.S. Forces Commander, General Stanley McChrystal, and U.S. Ambassador to that country, Karl Eikenberry, are assuring the legislators that they are indeed singing from the same sheet of music. But two developments, one of which is stealthy—in the sense that its real intention may not be quite apparent—are taking place in Pakistan. Together, implications of these developments for Pakistan, maybe even for Afghanistan, promise to be momentous.

One such development is the Kerry-Lugar Bill which has annoyed a lot of Pakistanis in its insistence that billions of dollars of the U.S. assistance to Pakistan will be for economic development and for ensuring that its notoriously politicized military stays in the barracks forever to allow the blooming of democracy in that country. The economic assistance part of that bill is a matter of public record; its ulterior motive (of keeping the army out of politics) is considerably stealthy.

Many Pakistanis were reported to be upset by the so-called “imperial” aspects of that bill; however, it plays the proverbial role of “belling the cat.” As a matter of history, Pakistani dictators took special pride in telling their countrymen that the reason they overthrew a civilian government was that it was headed by corrupt and inept civilians and how much more able they (the generals) themselves will be in ruling the country. But no dictator could rule the country well. As a matter of fact, the dictators not only created a mess in Pakistan, but its eastern wing was dismantled under the dictatorship of Yahya Khan. Another dictator, Zia ul-Haq, was largely responsible for Islamizing Pakistan–the long-term implications of which emerge in the form of current internal strife, sectarian violence, and suicide bombings in that country today.

It was only under the dictatorship of Pervez Musharraf that the Pakistani nation showed its anger towards the mess that his rule was creating in their country. Even though the international media did not call it any type of “color revolution,” the people of Pakistan revolted for democracy.

The duplicitous games of Musharraf—when he was told President George W. Bush how hard he was fighting the Islamists, while still remaining in cahoots with them—finally came to end. The enlightened part of that country’s population showed a lot of backbone in signaling to Washington that the days of Musharraf’s rule were over, circa July-August 2008. And it was America’s backing that really persuaded that dictator to go on a permanent sabbatical to London, from where he might still be planning a comeback in the distant future. Even if he succeeds, the Kerry-Lugar Bill has ensured that he would have to return to Pakistan as a reincarnated avatar of democracy.

So, for the first time in the entire history of Pakistan, the world can breathe easy, because that country’s military seems to have been locked within a golden cage (aka the continued American mega-economic assistance to Pakistan).

The second development is an unequivocal insistence of the Obama administration that the Pakistani military must go after al-Qaida and the Taliban, especially in North Waziristan. Until now, the Pakistani military has been quite coy about not smashing the al-Qaida-Taliban nexus, which was only interested in attacking the international security (ISAF) forces in Afghanistan. It was fighting the Tarik-e-Tulaba-e-Pakistan (TTP) only because the latter has targeted the Pakistani security establishment, especially in the aftermath of Musharraf’s decision to bring an end to a year-long takeover of the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in July 2007. Actual numbers of the dead are not available, but a general understanding is that scores of them were massacred.

The United States’ message to the Pakistani government is reported to be quite unmistakable: either you eradicate the al-Qaida-Taliban nexus in North Waziristan and its contiguous areas, or we will expand the scope of our own operations through the use of the UAVs and even Special Forces.

The Kerry-Lugar aspect of the United States’ role in Pakistan is indeed welcoming in the sense that, left to its own devices, that country’s Army would have never allowed the evolution of democracy. Considering how badly Pakistan needs economic assistance, and considering how badly the fighting capabilities of the Pakistani military have been damaged because of the near-bankrupt nature of its economy, the present and future generals of that country’s army will be forced to abandon the dreams of carrying out future coups d’état that have been proven so disastrous for that country in the past.

The U.S. insistence on the Pakistani Army to go after the al-Qaida-Taliban nexus might be the beginning a new chapter, if the Army were to take the American warnings seriously. Usama Bin Laden and Aiman al-Zawahari are likely to start sweating soon, if they haven’t already. It appears that the days of the Pakistani Army’s strategic gamesmanship in the Pak-Afghan border area might be coming to an end.
Both these developments, if they were to start producing their intended outcomes, are likely to push Pakistan toward becoming a stable democracy.