The rise and fall of great powers appear very clear only in retrospect. However, while it is happening, even the most imaginative scenario-builders are nagged by the looming uncertainty and the gnawing thought about whether they are witnessing a permanent or even a long-term trend, or whether they are watching only a “tempest in a teapot.” This is how I feel while witnessing the ostensible decline of the United States. Unlike a number of strategic thinkers, I do not link the start of the seeming decline of the lone superpower to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. On the contrary, I relate it to the economic miasma that has been lurking over its horizon since 2008, and the related worsening mood inside the United States that is preventing members of the Democratic and Republican parties to agree on middle-of-the road compromises – which had long been one of the hallmarks of American political culture – to cure its economic decline.
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