Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated on February 12, 2008. He was the alleged mastermind of the massive attacks on the U.S. and French Marines in Lebanon in 1983. His cohorts were allegedly involved in bombing Jewish targets in Argentina and for terrorist attacks in France in the early 1990s, resulting in more than 100 deaths. Borzou Daragahi and Sebastian Rotella of the Los Angeles Times wrote an intriguing piece on August 31, 2008, several months after Mughniyah’s assassination.
The most interesting part of Mughniyah’s assassination question–which will never be answered–is who killed him. He was one of the most sought-after persons by American as well as Israeli intelligence. However, since he successfully defied both of those countries, one possibility is that he was murdered by Syrian intelligence–with whom he was working closely–as a favor to the Americans. The United States has been determined to push for the indictment of Syria’s President Bishara Assad by the U.N. He is suspected to have been involved in the assassination of Lebanon’s former Premier Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon in 2005. As a quid pro quo for Mughniyah’s life, according to this speculation, Assad will be given a respite on the Hariri murder inquiry.
Another possibility is that Israel demanded Mughniyah’s head as a price for continuing the indirect negotiations with the Syrians involving a potential withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
The most interesting aspect of Mughniyah’s assassination is how Syria is being pulled between Israel and Iran. Israel is getting desperate to take military and diplomatic action against Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons ambitions. However, it must ensure a diplomatic isolation between Iran and Syria. That would also weaken the Iran-Hezbollah nexus. If true, we might be witnessing a new power alignment in the Levant whereby Syria–for explicit promises of the return of the Golan Heights from Israel–might create a diplomatic distance with Iran. At the same time, it will be persuaded by Israel to tighten control on Hezbollah. Needless to say, Iran is not going to remain idle in this alleged diplomatic cat-and-mouse game between Israel and Syria.